The results of the attribution study on the extreme heat wave over Germany in June 2026 have been published

Abstract

In 2026, the summer began with extreme conditions: never before had the German Weather Service issued heat warnings for such a long continuous period. However, the heatwave unfolded differently across large parts of Germany: whilst it was consistently hot particularly in the west and south, the east was not severely affected until the end of the heatwave. There, the event reached its peak with a maximum temperature of 41,8 °C on 27 June in Möckern-Drewitz.

Because of that, various regions in Germany were examined in this study for both daily maximum and minimum temperatures over periods of 1, 2 and 7 days. The area-averaged temperatures that occurred were unusually high for early summer and exceeded return periods of 100 years in most regions. The event itself is not statistically possible in a 1,3 °C colder climate. Because of that, it was not possible to determine the increase in probability. However, climate models calculate a further significant increase in probability for a 0,7 °C warmer climate.

The increase in the intensity of the event compared with the past varied slightly across the individual regions. For the whole of Germany, the hottest day of the heat wave was 3,0 °C (1,3 to 4,8 °C) warmer than in a pre-industrial climate. Over the period of an entire week, it was on average 3,2 °C (1,2 to 4,9 °C) hotter. Again, observations show a stronger trend than the climate models. This increase in intensity is also expected to continue into the future.

The study can be found here
https://www.dwd.de/DE/klimaumwelt/klimaforschung/spez_themen/attributionen/links/2026_studie_hitzewelle_deutschland.html