Scale Dependent Process Representation and Sensitivity Analysis for Most Extreme Events
The project SEVERE investigates the physics, processes and scale dependency of very extreme precipitation events. Very extreme precipitation events with very long return periods (e.g. 100 years) can potentially cause large damages, especially when followed by regional or large scale flooding. This is crucial in a warming climate since atmospheric physics shows that warmer air contains more water than colder air (as described in the Clausius-Clapeyron equation). Hence a larger water content in the air masses brings an increased potential for precipitation extremes. However, this effect is not the only factor since the future development depends as well on the large and regional scale evaporation, atmospheric stability conditions
and large-dynamics dynamics. The period, for which reliable observations exist (~ 50 years), is too short to derive robust estimates on longer time-scales. Therefore, SEVERE will use the data from existing large ensembles of regional climate simulations from German and International projects (MiKlip, CMIP-5/6, CORDEX). The project is structured into three phases: i) The characterization of intensity, extension and duration of observed extreme precipitation events over Europe with respect to their temporal and spatial distribution. ii) Evaluation of the potential of climate simulations to reproduce the relevant features of extreme precipitation as well as the large and
regional scale processes. iii) The results will then be applied to the existing large ensembles of climate simulations to identify a sufficient number of very extreme precipitation events.
Institution: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Contact: Hendrik Feldmann, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez