The most extreme precipitation events in Europe
Heavy, large-scale precipitation events and associated floodings represent one of the greatestnatural hazards for society in Europe. The rarity of the most extreme precipitation events, whichcause particularly severe damage, makes systematic scientific investigations difficult. The processesbehind such extreme precipitation events are therefore not yet fully understood. This project aims toinvestigate the most extreme and relevant precipitation events in European river basins regardingtheir causative processes by using a new, innovative approach to data collection. Subsequently,differences to strong but less extreme events will be highlighted and future changes of these mostextreme precipitation events in a warmer climate will be estimated.  Different meteorological parameters will be used to study the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the associated moisture transport during these events. Weather systems such as cyclones, fronts and blocking anticyclones will be objectively identified to classify the circulation anomalies. In order to better understand the differences to less extreme precipitation events, these analyses will also be applied to 1- to 20-year events and compared with the 100-year events. Finally, possible future changes of the most extreme precipitation events in a warmer climate will be estimated under a "business as usual" scenario using climate simulations of the Community Earth System Model.
Institution: Freie Universität Berlin
Contact: Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff