Long-term variability and serial clustering of severe thunderstorms in a changing climate
The aim of this project is to link severe convective storms (SCS) in Europe with large-scale atmospheric processes and to investigate the influence of these processes on the annual variability of SCS both in the past and in the future. Furthermore, this project investigates how large-scale mechanisms determine clustersof SCS on scales of several days to weeks (referred to as serial clustering). Knowledge on thesemechanisms is still insufficient, but a prerequisite for estimating robust statements about long-termchanges and trends in the SCS frequency. VarCluST intend to answer two major scientific questions: i) which large-scale processes (e.g., teleconnection patterns or certain weather types such asatmospheric blocking) have an influence on the high observed annual variability of SCS in the pastand which changes in thunderstorm frequency and relevant processes can be expected in thefuture? ii) which atmospheric mechanisms influence the increased occurrence of SCS within a few daysup to several weeks (serial clustering)? The obtained knowledge will be transferred to an ensemble of regional climate models to estimate the probability and persistence of SCS and SCS-related large-scale processes in future decades.
Institution: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Contact: Susanna Mohr, Michael Kunz, Markus Augenstein