Attribution of Decadal Variations of European Heat Waves
In recent decades, Europe has experienced an increasing number of extremely warm summers. This tendency has largely been attributed to the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and is expected to be accentuated as global warming continues to increase. The changes in the frequency and amplitude of the European heat extremes depend not only on the level ofglobal warming, but also on the large sub to multi-decadal variability of the climatesystem. In this project we will quantify the contribution from sub to multidecadalvariability to the frequency and intensityof European heat waves and will investigate their drivingmechanisms. For this purpose we will use observations and simulations from the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE). By evaluating the large samples of extremes under different climate conditions simulated with the MPI-GE, we can identify how the decadal variability in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Ocean heat transport variability and respective recurring circulation patterns, affect the extreme summer temperatures and their driving mechanisms: the dynamical large scale atmospheric state and the local thermodynamical effect of moisture  limitation. Ultimately, our goal is to establish attribution and projection frameworks that account for not only mean global warming, but also for the sub to multi-decadal variability in the climate system.
Institution: Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Contact: Laura Suárez Gutiérrez