Effects of climate change on extreme sea levels in the North Sea under realistic consideration of external surges and atmosphere-ocean feedback mechanisms
This project aims at an understanding of regional impacts of global climate change on extreme sealevel heights in the North Sea. Climate change effects in the atmosphere and ocean may increase therisk for local flooding due to storm surges or high water levels in rivers and estuaries. Based on modelresults of high-resolution climate projections for the 21st century, both driving mechanisms andleading variability modes of sea level extremes at the continental North Sea coast shall be identified,including an in-depth analysis of potential future changes in the occurrence and dynamics ofcorresponding weather conditions. Particular focus will be laid on the investigation of the interplay ofexternal and internal storm surges, tides and hydro-meteorological events, which are consistentlysimulated by a regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system model. Large-scale driving mechanisms of extreme sea levels will be identified and evaluated by incorporating a hindcast simulation forced with atmospheric reanalysis data. Projected climate change signals due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions as well as the natural variability of the dynamic system will be assessed over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales (regional to large-scale, inter-annual to multi-decadal). Estimates of potential future changes based on such a comprehensive approach with respect to physical process representation and statistical validity significantly improve the current understanding of climatic drivers of extreme sea levels.
Institution: University of Hamburg
Contact: Bernhard Mayer, Thomas Pohlmann, Moritz Mathis