Module Coordination and Advanced Detection/Attribution Studies
This project concentrates upon two major lines of tasks. First, the coordination of ClimXtreme in concert with the coordinators of Module A, C and D together with the coordination of the sixteen subprojects within Module B. Scientifically, B1.1 will contribute to the advanced methods of detection and attribution of climate change by anthropogenic influences using a Bayes statistical approach. The methods will include a single event attribution based on an explicit Bayesian likelihood modelling for observed heatwave and wind storm cases given the factual and counterfactual scenario. The data basis will be given by the MiKliP decadal prediction system which can be combined into a 75 member lagged ensemble for about 50 years. Additionally, a set of simulation data will come from the long term (1880 – 2010) historical full forcing, historical natural forcing and historical anthropogenic CMIP5 simulations besides the preindustrial control run to compare different factual scenario (historic full forcing, historic anthropogenic) with different counterfactual (preindustrial control, historic natural) simulations in the Bayesian sense. Observations will be taken from station data and the regional reanalyses REA6.
Institution: University of Bonn
Contact: Andreas Hense, Ieda Pscheidt, Christian Ohlwein