Attribution of weather and climate extremes with focus on Germany including preparatory work for operationalisation
The types of extreme events considered in this project are heat waves, heavy rainfall events and droughts. A major goal is to evaluate the applicability of different attribution methods to the output of a variety of global and regional climate models and the hierarchy of simulations that these models produce, i.e. climate model projections, as well as decadal and seasonal forecasts. Finally, a concept for the operationalisation of the attribution of weather and climate extremes is developed. The overall objective is to carry out essential preliminary work and to develop a prototype system. For this purpose, the applicability of existing components is tested, they are adapted as required and newly developed where necessary. It is essential to develop a processing chain that works largely without the intervention of an operator. However, some expert knowledge will always be required, for example in the definition of the event. The project will also test the robustness of the attribution processing chain for a large number of data sets and different types of extreme events. The project aims to establish a direct collaboration with the group worldweatherattribution.org and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) activity "Prototype extreme event attribution service".
Institution: Deutscher Wetterdienst
Contact: Frank Kreienkamp, Philip Lorenz, Jordis Tradowsky