Probabilistic attribution of extreme precipitation to aerosol perturbations 
Climate change may impact societies in particular by extreme events; extreme precipitation andlightning from deep convection (thunderstorms) are a particular threat. Anthropogenic modification ofthe atmospheric composition may drive changes in these events. Different from greenhouse gases andglobal warming, aerosol particle emissions may directly impact deep convection. This project will (i)assess the impact of aerosols on deep convection as simulated by the ICON regional model withexisting large-domain large-eddy simulations, a multi-model ensemble, and ground-basedobservations as reference, and (ii) investigate in a probabilistic attribution framework (ensemblemodelling of factual and counterfactual conditions) the impact of aerosols on extreme rain andlightning. Possible work in a second phase will investigate these in a long-term and global framework.
Institution: University of Leipzig
Contact: Johannes Quaas