Scales of Atmospheric spatio-temporal Variability and their role in determining the past and future frequency of Extreme events
The aim of SAVE is to determine the role of atmospheric characteristics, structures and processes in the generation, amplification or attenuation of extreme events by applying a multivariate approach. Especially with regard to the spatial resolution of climate simulations, it is to be expected that the climatological representation of extremes is suboptimal. Therefore, the project goals are: i) determination of scale-dependent atmospheric drivers for extreme events by examining the relationship between atmospheric conditions and processes and the occurrence of extremes on different spatio-temporal scales, ii) analysis of past changes in the occurrence of extremes with respect to changes in the identified scale-dependent drivers, and ii) transfer of the identified relationships of drivers and extremes to climate projections in order to enhance the prediction of future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Our analysis is based on a multi-scale approach using data sets with different spatial resolutions. This approach allows for the estimation of drivers of extremes on large (global) scales using global reanalysis, continental scales using regional reanalysis and local scales using convection-resolving reanalysis. Furthermore, the planned approach exploits the spatio-temporal drivers identified using reanalysis data (as approximate for the true state) to enhance (regional) climate predictions by applying or transferring the determined statistical relationships between drivers and extremes.
Institution: University Bonn, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hans-Ertel-Zentrum für Wetterforschung
Contact: Sabrina Wahl