Analysing probabilities of compound events 
In climate science, compound events can be i) two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously or successively, ii) combinations of extreme events with underlying conditions that amplify the impact of the events, or iii) combinations of events that are not themselves extremes but lead to an extreme event or impact when combined (Seneviratne et al. 2012). Here, we focus on the identification and statistical modelling of compound events resulting from i) heavy precipitation with windstorms, ii) heavy precipitation with high river discharges, iii) heavy precipitation with storm surges, and iv) precipitation-induced high river discharges with storm surges. The four combinations are drivers for major societal risks from hydrological natural disasters. Thus, the project aim is to gain profound knowledge of past and future changes of the probabilities and magnitude of such compound events. This is of special importance, e.g. for building resilient societies. The project ProComE is organized into three work packages: i) Data compilation and basic analysis, ii) Univariate extreme value methods, and iii) Analysing probabilities of compound events. The results of the project will improve the understanding of past and future changes of probabilities of compound events. Since natural disasters, triggered by hydrological compound events, are a major source for today’s societal risks, the results of this project will help to reduce these risks and hence give support to establish more resilient societies.
Institutions: University of Applied Science, Bochum, wbu consulting engineers GmbH
Contact: Christoph Mudersbach