Forest risks - Deriving receptor specific indicators for storm and drought in the 21st century
Wind throws/breaks and drought effects are major climate risks for forests in Central Europe (and thus also in Germany) in the 21st century. In a scenario of increased future cyclonic activity, decreased return periods of severe windstorms, higher variability in extreme wet-dry soil moisture conditions and associated compound events result in potentially severe ecological and economic damage. These include reduced Ecosystem Services (ESS) like water retention, erosion protection, or input of high-quality water to drinking water reservoirs. In the proposed study, a combination of process modeling (soil water status with BROOK90), planetary boundary layer modeling (HIRVAC) and diagnostic wind modeling (WITRAK) will be applied to zoom into areas representing various climate regions of Germany subject to well- documented storm damage since 1990. Combined non-linear statistical approaches will be used to establish relationships between wind throws/breaks and the prevailing preconditions (soil moisture regime, local wind field, etc.) while taking stand characteristics (age, structure, species composition, etc.) into account.
Institution: TU Dresden
Contact: Daniel Gliksman , Frances Pusch, Karl-Heinz Feger