Focus topic heat & drought
Severe heat waves
Image Credit: Quelle: Deutscher Wetterdienst [1]
Compared to previous decades, the intensity and frequency of heatwaves in Germany has increased. In recent years, dry periods during the growing season also appear to be occurring more frequently and lasting longer [1]. This development is in line with global trends caused by anthropogenic climate change. In its Sixth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also reports an increase in heatwaves in most land regions of the world and a trend towards an increase in agricultural and ecological droughts in Western and Central Europe [2].
In this context, Becker et al. (2022) analysed heatwaves in Europe between 1979 and 2019 using normalized heat indices in order to better compare heatwaves[3].
Rousi et al. (2022) note a significantly stronger trend in the increase in heatwaves for Central Europe compared to other regions at the same northern latitude. They identify the formation of a double jet as a decisive factor in this intensification [4].
Suarez-Gutierrez et al. (2023) predict that extreme heat and drought conditions, such as those expected in Europe at the end of the 21st century, may already occur in the near future. In the 2030s, the probability of individual years of this intensity is already 10%. The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability has a major influence here [5].
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News heat/drought
Projects on the topic of heat & drought
Here you will find further information on the projects of the ClimXtreme research consortium that deal with heat and drought.
References
[1] Deutscher Wetterdienst / Extremwetterkongress (2024): Was wir 2024 über das Extremwetter in Deutschland wissen. Offenbach am Main, Deutschland, https://www.dwd.de/DE/klimaumwelt/aktuelle_meldungen/240924/faktenpapier_extremwetterkongress.html.
[2] IPCC, 2021: Zusammenfassung für die politische Entscheidungsfindung. In: Naturwissenschaftliche Grundlagen. Beitrag von Arbeitsgruppe I zum Sechsten Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses für Klimaänderungen [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. In Druck. Deutsche Übersetzung auf Basis der Druckvorlage, Oktober 2021. Deutsche IPCC-Koordinierungsstelle, Bonn; Bundesministerium für Klimaschutz, Umwelt, Energie, Mobilität, Innovation und Technologie, Wien; Akademie der Naturwissenschaften Schweiz SCNAT, ProClim, Bern, Februar 2022, https://www.de-ipcc.de/media/content/AR6-WGI-SPM_deutsch_barrierefrei.pdf.
[3] Becker, F. N., Fink, A. H., Bissolli, P., & Pinto, J. G. (2022). Towards a more comprehensive assessment of the intensity of historical European heat waves (1979–2019). Atmospheric Science Letters, 23(11), e1120. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1120.
[4] Rousi, E., Kornhuber, K., Beobide-Arsuaga, G. et al. (2022). Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nat Commun 13, 3851. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y.
[5] Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Müller, W.A. & Marotzke, J. Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly. Commun Earth Environ 4, 415 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01075-y.
